The End of Cheap Oil
Campbell and Laherrère, 1998
Matthew
Simmons Feb '05
Saudi Oil May Have Peaked Already
USA's
Triple Energy Whammy
Brian J. Fleay, 2001
Methane
Madness
A Natural Gas Primer
Udall & Andrews 2001
The End of the Road
Mike Neligh, 2000
A conservative bank sounds
the alarm
Ottawa Citizen, October 6, 2000
Energy
in the New Economy:
The
Limits to Growth
Matthew Simmons, 2000
Has
Production Peaked?
David Brown, 2000
Want more detail?
Go here:
World Oil Consumption
In real time
Energy
Bulletin
Best collection of news and background on peak oil
The
Oil Drum
Extremely technical discussions by experienced oil people
peakoil.net
Home of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil&Gas
dieoff.org
This site was the original source, but is fading a little now
and oilcrisis.com
About the pioneers:
Hubbert,
Campbell
Laherrere
Duncan
Youngquist
Ivanhoe
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Understanding our physical limits
. . . and some tools for interpreting unfolding events
For the past several years I've spent a lot of time studying the
problem of petroleum supply, the question of when oil production will
reach its peak and begin an inevitable decline. It's a kind of
morbid hobby.
I've learned that the present instability of the world price of oil is a
symptom of peaking production, which, according to the most experienced
independent geologists, will occur between 2005 and 2010. That is
soon -- soon enough to start making plans.
Back in the 1950s a Texas geologist named M.
King Hubbert developed the Hubbert curve, which has become the primary
analytical tool for understanding and predicting the yield of an oil
field, from its discovery to its exploitation, depletion and
abandonment. Then he used the curve to predict the peak in US oil
production, then world production by analyzing all the oil fields.
Worldwide consumption is now about 84 million
barrels of oil a day, or about 30 billion barrels per year. Demand
has been increasing at 3 per cent per year. Realistic geologists
think there only ever were about two trillion barrels of recoverable oil
and half of that is now gone. Hubbert accurately hypothesized that
production peaks at the half way point and declines thereafter rather
steeply. As you can see, we have a problem.
So I've assembled a short list of articles that I have found most
useful as an introduction to the various issues involved. These
are also the ones I've found most accessible, well written and well
researched.
Some of those who are aware of this issue have undertaken to
help others understand oil depletion so they can plan accordingly.
This page is my contribution to the effort.
The awareness of petroleum depletion has caused me to change my
behavior. While planning for their financial future is a
preoccupation of most middle-aged people, at our household we are
devoting more effort to planning our energy future by
reducing our demands and using renewable energy resources.
Below are some quick reviews of the articles.
The End of Cheap Oil
Campbell and Laherrère, 1998
This is the famous article that
got so many people's attention when it first appeared. An
excellent overview of the mechanisms of oil depletion (including
politics) from two of the most experienced and respected geologists in
the world. A must-read article for anyone wanting an introduction
to oil depletion.
USA's
Triple Energy Whammy
Brian J. Fleay, 2001
Anyone interested in some
deep insights into the current energy chaos in the US will find this
article enlightening, if not frightening. The message: start
conserving energy. Right now.
Methane
Madness: A Natural Gas Primer
Randy Udall with Steve
Andrews, 2001
This is a direct link to a pdf file on the dieoff.org site. Only
four pages long, this article is worth printing out and
circulating. It includes this great quote from veteran petroleum
driller Charlie Brister:
"We live in the most
energy intensive civilization the world has ever known, and yet the
average American knows nothing about energy. But things may have
to get a lot more critical before the public is ready to hear the
truth. You piss everyone off if you try to explain to a typical
Republican that: 'There's not enough oil in the U.S. for us to be
self-sufficient' or tell a typical environmentalist that 'Wind and solar
cannot meet 100% of our energy needs.'"
The End of the Road
Mike Neligh, 2000
I marveled at this article when I first read it in
draft form. In fact I liked it so much I proofread it and offered
some editorial suggestions to Mike as he refined it. I have now
read it many times and still find this tragic story compelling, as it
weaves together the human and geologic sides of petroleum
depletion.
A conservative bank sounds
the alarm
Ottawa Citizen, October 6, 2000
Considering the fact that almost no classical
economists understand or recognize the problem of oil depletion, I was
surprised to see this recent article reporting on Jeffrey Rubin's
report for CIBC. Its appearance is a signal that others may soon
sit up and take notice.
Energy
in the New Economy:
The
Limits to Growth
Matthew Simmons, 2000
This speech
is included because the last thing Simmons wants to do is admit the
physical limits of the oil patch. But he has no choice. You
can hear the regret in his voice. The speech is important for who
gave it and who it was given to.
Has
Production Peaked?
David Brown, May 2000 edition of The
Explorer
"The
world is running out of crude oil. No,
it isn't.
And
there you have the two sides of a simmering controversy in petroleum
geology and the oil industry in general."
That is how David Brown began his article on oil depletion and is the
reason I wanted to read it. It is worth the read.
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